Papers
This page provides access to papers and presentations prepared by BEA staff. Abstracts are presented in HTML format; complete papers are in PDF format with selected tables in XLS format. The views expressed in these papers are solely those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis or the U.S. Department of Commerce.
Accounting for Improved Brick and Mortar Shopping Experiences:
Brick and mortar retailers spent $484 billion providing “free” shopping experiences in 2016. For example, vehicle dealerships provide “free” test drives, book stores provide “free” book signings and grocery stores provide “free” food samples. To capture the value of “free” shopping experiences,… Read more
Improving the Measure of the Distribution of Personal Income
Developing a national account-based measure of the distribution of income from the commonly used Census based concept of money income has been the subject of earlier research. We use publicly available survey and administrative data to construct a distribution of personal income after enhancing… Read more
Benchmark 2011 Integrated Estimates of the Japan-U.S. Price Level Index for Industry Outputs
This paper provides new benchmark estimates of industry-level price differentials between Japan and the U.S. for 2011 based on a bilateral price accounting model anchored to the Japan-US input-output tables. We apply the model to translate available demand-side data on purchaser’s price PPPs for… Read more
Accounting for Special District Governments in the U.S. National Accounts
Special district governments are a type of local government that may embody characteristics of both governments and private businesses and are an important source of public services. Given the combined characteristics of special districts and their economic importance, a complete and consistent… Read more
Estimating Extended Supply-Use Tables in Basic Prices with Firm Heterogeneity for the United States: A Proof of Concept
This paper presents proof-of-concept trade-in-value added (TiVA) statistics estimated from extended supply-use tables for the United States that account for firm heterogeneity. The tables used to estimate the TiVA statistics extend recently-introduced supply-use tables for the United States by… Read more
Accounting for Firm Heterogeneity within U.S. Industries: Extended Supply-Use Tables and Trade in Value Added using Enterprise and Establishment Level Data
This paper presents experimental trade-in-value added statistics estimated from extended supply-use tables (SUTs) for the United States for 2005 and 2012 that account for firm heterogeneity. The tables used to estimate the TiVA statistics extend supply-use tables for the United States by… Read more
Improving the Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials: a Posterior Simulation Approach
The randomized controlled trial (RCT) is the standard for establishing efficacy and tolerability of treatments. However, the statistical evaluation of treatment effects in RCTs has remained largely unchanged for several decades. A new approach to Bayesian hypothesis testing for RCTs that… Read more
Predictive Testing for Granger Causality via Posterior Simulation and Cross Validation
This paper develops a predictive approach to Granger causality testing that utilizes k-fold cross-validation and posterior simulation to perform out-of-sample testing. A Monte Carlo study indicates that the cross-validation predictive procedure has improved power in comparison to previously… Read more
Implications of Geometric Cohort Depreciation for Service-Life Distributions
Value of Data: There’s No Such Thing as a Free Lunch in the Digital Economy
The Facebook-Cambridge Analytica data scandal demonstrates that there is no such thing as a free lunch in the digital world. Online platform companies exchange “free” digital goods and services for consumer data, reaping potentially significant economic benefits by monetizing data. The… Read more